(Note: Suggested additional reading: http://www.IceAgeNow.com/. It is good to keep in mind that cyclical climate trends are just that: cyclical. The 'global warming' cult continues to prophecy all sorts of things that could, may and might happen. Before accepting this article at face value, please look a little deeper into the available facts. This is one study by some scientists at one college. Also, regarding the burgeoning elk herds, why has the concept of 'wolf reintroduction' not been voiced? Wolves are the consummate experts in elk herd decimation -- er, reduction.

January 28, 2003

Associated Press

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DENVER, Colorado - Global warming could make Rocky Mountain National Park more of a year-round tourist destination, according to a study by Colorado State University scientists.

It also could mean an overpopulation of elk and the replacement of tundra with trees, leading to more wildfires.

"The effects of climate change will likely be harmful to park ecosystems, though there may be some beneficial aspects to both the park and its gateway community," said N. Thompson Hobbs of CSU's Natural Resource Ecology Lab.

Park officials declined to comment on the details of the studies. "But obviously we are concerned, as everyone else should be," said Tony Schetzsle, the park's assistant superintendent. "National parks are great barometers because they can reflect environmental change over time."

The study, sponsored by the Environmental Protection Agency, tried to assess how the important features of the 416-square mile park straddling the Continental Divide are most likely to show the impact of long-term climate warming.

Researchers used both historic weather records and a range of temperatures predicted under various warming scenarios. In the last few years, there has been a growing scientific consensus that the global climate is warming, though the cause of that trend is still the subject of hot political debate.

The park study predicts a 3- to 5-degree increase in average temperature will allow trees to grow at higher elevations, eventually squeezing out the alpine tundra draped over the park's summits and the wildlife that depend on it, according to studies recently submitted for publication in the journals Climate Change and Climate Research.

Less-severe winters will probably result in better survival of elk calves, further increasing the size of a herd that, according to another study, is so bloated that it has severely depleted aspen and willow stands needed by a host of other species. Park biologists are already struggling with a limited set of options for limiting current elk numbers.

The warming would bring with it some benefits.

A survey of 1,200 Estes Park visitors suggested that they would come earlier and stay longer if warmer weather provided better access to hiking trails and mountain peaks, according to CSU economists Stephan Weiler and John Loomis.

Under one scenario, that could amount to an additional 1,000 jobs and a $44 million annual boost to the local economy.

"That's significant, when you're talking about a base economy of 6,000 to 7,000 jobs," Weiler said.

http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/0128rockmountain-warming-ON.html