(Note: "The Texas Challenge in the Twenty-First Century,"
the Texas state demographer calls it. It appears more to be "The
Erased Border Result.")
Minorities are now the majority in Texas, the fourth state in
the country to receive the designation, according to the U.S. Census
Bureau.
“
Texas has now joined Hawaii, New Mexico and California as a
majority-minority state, along with the District of Columbia,”
the bureau reported in a prepared statement issued Wednesday.
“According to July 1, 2004, population estimates, Texas had a
minority population of 11.3 million, comprising 50.2 percent of its
total population of 22.5 million.”
There are 7.8 million Hispanics in Texas, or 34.6 percent
of the total population, according to Robert Bernstein,
spokesman for the bureau.
The bureau provides information about the current population and
economy, and makes future projections based on the statistics it
provides.
Brownsville Mayor Eddie Trevino said that Texas should view this new
designation as positive.
“It’s incumbent upon all state
leaders to recognize what an asset they have in such a designation and
to promote and take advantage of the resources (minorities provide). I
think this bodes well for Texas in general,” Trevino
said.
Texas State Demographer Steve Murdock said the milestone “was no
surprise to anyone.”
But projecting the figures forward, Murdock predicts a Texas that will
be poorer and less educated than now, if past trends remain unchanged.
Murdock makes projections on what Texas will look like through 2040
based primarily on the trends that took place between 1990 and 2000,
which he calculates to be good indicators of future growth patterns.
Given the bureau’s announcement Wednesday, Murdock said he’s
“not sure if there are many profound implications (for
Brownsville).”
“We're going to see the state become more like Brownsville,” he
said.
He added that the state wouldn't necessarily see the same
“socioeconomic difficulties.”
Antonio Zavaleta, vice-president for external affairs at the
University of Texas Brownsville and Texas Southmost College can see
how Texas would look more like Brownsville, given Murdock’s figures.
“Texas will be browner and poorer,” Zavaleta, an anthropologist
said.
With a median household income of $24,468, Brownsville is well below
the state average of $39,927 and Murdock doesn't predict a drop to
exactly this level. But he does predict future Texans will have less
income.
Armed with his statistics and projections, Murdock
travels the state painting a picture of tomorrow’s Texas to diverse
groups, from librarians and nurse administrators, to bankers and
politicians.
He calls it “The Texas Challenge in the Twenty-First Century.”
As a proportion of net population change between 1990 and
2000, Hispanics accounted for 60 percent of the growth, triple the
Anglo population’s proportion.
“Due to a variety of things --
vast differences in income and education attainment levels --
Texas could be a poorer and a less competitive state,”
Murdock said.
In 2000, 58 percent of the state’s labor force was Anglo and
27 percent was Hispanic. But if past trends hold as Murdock
foresees, those figures will be almost exactly the opposite, with
Hispanics making up 59 percent of the labor force and Anglos 25
percent in 2040.
If nothing changes, Hispanics will have a lower percentage of high
school dropouts, and increased high school and higher education
attainment in 2040, he calculates.
But because that population will comprise 59 percent of the labor
force, overall educational attainment will be down, drastically.
“The challenge is closing the educational gap and thereby (closing)
income differentials that exist. Those gaps must close if Texas is to
remain competitive. If we can improve
the education levels (of Hispanics), we can have a younger labor force
that is multi-cultural and multi-lingual. In an international economy,
this can be to our advantage,” Murdock said.
If that gap isn't closed, Texas will move from having a labor
force where 19 percent have no high school diploma, to one
where 30 percent have no diploma.
As that number grows, Murdock sees a corresponding decline in workers
with some college education, bachelor’s degrees and graduate
degrees.
When informed of Murdock’s projections, Mayor Trevino was surprised.
“This ought to be a wake up alarm for state leaders that education
is the cornerstone for keeping Texas competitive,” Trevino said.
As the state’s demographer, Murdock does not make political
statements, but Trevino was not shy about using Murdock’s statistics
to point to the school finance issue before Texas courts and the
Legislature.
“If we don't address and solve (school funding) in an equitable
fashion, these trends we've seen over the past 10 years will
increase,” he said.
Murdock’s education figures are tied to household income, which he
projects to decrease if the trends of the 1990s remain unchanged.
Adjusted for inflation, average household incomes across the state are
set to decrease from $54,441 in 2000, to $47,883 in 2040.
Murdock explains these projections by saying, “If your labor force
isn't well educated, you're not prepared to do the jobs that provide
(more money) to your state.”
“The future of Texas is truly tied to
its non-Anglo populations. They are over 50 percent of our population,
they provide our labor force and leadership,”
Murdock.
Murdock also predicts that Texas will have a much younger population
than today and said, “Our future is tied to their competitiveness
and their ability to compete in an international economy.”
“When the Dell’s and the Toyota’s are looking to establish
high-paying jobs, they're looking to areas with a technologically
competent workforce,” Zavaleta said.
“Education equals economic development. If we're not going to put
money into education, let’s just start building the prisons now,”
he said.
In 2000 Texas spent $1.9 billion on its prison population of 126,515.
If nothing changes, the state demographer forecasts a prison
population of 341,068, costing taxpayers $5.1 billion annually.